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Prediction for CME (2022-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-22T07:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21702/-1
CME Note: Seen in the west of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source location is unclear but may be a faint eruption with dimming seen around N10W05 in the proximity of AR 1309. STEREO A EUVI imagery was unavailable due to a data gap.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-26T01:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-09-22T20:58Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 400
Longitude (deg): 021W
Latitude (deg): 15N
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: Inferred ejecta from vicinity of rapdily-developing AR3109 near centre-disc. Several small dimmings seen through UTC morning of 22 Sep, but most likely from one around UTC dawn given time it appeared on C2. This submission is a revision of earlier fit using C3 and STEREO A, with the result being quicker, probably merging with a minor earlier CME seen leaving the SE quadrant (perhaps from AR3105) during the UTC evening of 21 September, although this latter feature should be predominant.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 64.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-09-23T08:50Z

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